From ECONEWS
December, 1999 The Arctic ice-sheet,
2 - 3 metres thick, is thought to be two million years old. Yet
four weeks ago, Norwegian scientists reported that in the last
30 years it has lost 40% of its thickness, and it is losing width
at 7% per decade, due (the scientists agree) to global warming.
If this continues, by 2050 there will be no summer ice-sheet
left at all. Our grandchildren will be able to kayak to the north
pole - but there will be no polar bears to see them do it.
"In the past half century,
the world has lost a fourth of its topsoil and a quarter of its
forest cover. At present rates of destruction, we will lose 70%
of the world's coral reefs in our lifetime, host to 25% of marine
life. In the past three decades, one third of the planet's resources,
its 'natural wealth', has been consumed. We are losing freshwater
ecosystems at the rate of 6% a year, marine ecosystems by 4%
a year. There is no longer any serious scientific dispute that
the decline in every living system in the world is reaching such
levels that an increasing number of them are starting to lose
their assured ability to sustain the continuity of the life process.
We have reached an extraordinary threshold." (from Natural
Capitalism by Paul Hawken & Amory & Hunter Lovins)
WORLD SCIENTISTS'
WARNING TO HUMANITY
Over 1,500
members of national, regional, and international science academies
have signed the Warning that appears below. Sixty-nine nations
from all parts of Earth are represented, including each of the
twelve most populous nations and the nineteen largest economic
powers. The list includes a majority of the Nobel laureates in
the sciences.
Union of
Concerned Scientists,
96 Church Street, Cambridge, Mass 02238-9105, USA
WARNING
November 18,
1992:
Human
beings and the natural world are on a collision course. Human
activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the
environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of
our current practices put at serious risk the future that we
wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and
may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain
life in the manner that we know. Fundamental changes are urgent
if we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring
about.
THE ENVIRONMENT
The environment
is suffering critical stress:
The Atmosphere
Stratospheric
ozone depletion threatens us with enhanced ultra-violet radiation
at the earth's surface, which can be damaging or lethal to many
life forms. Air pollution near ground level, and acid precipitation,
are already causing widespread injury to humans, forests and
crops.
Water Resources
Heedless exploitation
of depletable ground water supplies endangers food production
and other essential human systems. Heavy demands on the world's
surface waters have resulted in serious shortages in some 80
countries, containing 40% of the world's population. Pollution
of rivers, lakes and ground water further limits the supply.
Oceans
Destructive
pressure on the oceans is severe, particularly in the coastal
regions which produce most of the world's food fish. The total
marine catch is now at or above the estimated maximum sustainable
yield. Some fisheries have already shown signs of collapse. Rivers
carrying heavy burdens of eroded soil into the seas also carry
industrial, municipal, agricultural, and livestock waste -- some
of it toxic
Soil
Loss of soil
productivity, which is causing extensive land abandonment, is
a widespread byproduct of current practices in agriculture and
animal husbandry. Since 1945, 11% of the earth's vegetated surface
has been degraded -- an area larger than India and China combined
-- and per capita food production in many parts of the world
is decreasing.
Forests
Tropical rain
forests, as well as tropical and temperate dry forests, are being
destroyed rapidly. At present rates, some critical forest types
will be gone in a few years and most of the tropical rain forest
will be gone before the end of the next century. With them will
go large numbers of plant and animal species.
Living Species
The irreversible
loss of species, which by 2100 may reach one third of all species
now living, is especially serious. We are losing the potential
they hold for providing medicinal and other benefits, and the
contribution that genetic diversity of life forms gives to the
robustness of the world's biological systems and to the astonishing
beauty of the earth itself.
Much of this
damage is irreversible on a scale of centuries or permanent.
Other processes appear to pose additional threats. Increasing
levels of gases in the atmosphere from human activities, including
carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel burning and from deforestation,
may alter climate on a global scale. Predictions of global warming
are still uncertain -- with projected effects ranging from tolerable
to very severe -- but the potential risks are very great.
Our massive
tampering with the world's interdependent web of life -- coupled
with the environmental damage inflicted by deforestation, species
loss, and climate change -- could trigger widespread adverse
effects, including unpredictable collapses of critical biological
systems whose interactions and dynamics we only imperfectly understand.
Uncertainty
over the extent of these effects cannot excuse complacency or
delay in facing the threat.
POPULATION
The earth is
finite. Its ability to absorb wastes and destructive effluent
is finite. Its ability to provide food and energy is finite.
Its ability to provide for growing numbers of people is finite.
And we are fast approaching many of the earth's limits. Current
economic practices which damage the environment, in both developed
and underdeveloped nations, cannot be continued without the risk
that vital global systems will be damaged beyond repair.
Pressures resulting
from unrestrained population growth put demands on the natural
world that can overwhelm any efforts to achieve a sustainable
future. If we are to halt the destruction of our environment,
we must accept limits to that growth. A World Bank estimate indicates
that world population will not stabilize at less than 12.4 billion,
while the United Nations concludes that the eventual total could
reach 14 billion, a near tripling of today's 5.4 billion. But,
even at this moment, one person in five lives in absolute poverty
without enough to eat, and one in ten suffers serious malnutrition.
No more than one or a few decades remain before the chance to
avert the threats we now confront will be lost and the prospects
for humanity immeasurably diminished.
WARNING
We the undersigned,
senior members of the world's scientific community, hereby warn
all humanity of what lies ahead. A great change in our stewardship
of the earth and the life on it, is required, if vast human misery
is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to
beirretrievably mutilated.
WHAT WE MUST
DO
Five inextricably
linked areas must be addressed simultaneously:
1. We must
bring environmentally damaging activities under control to restore
and protect the integrity of the earth's systems we depend on.
We must, for
example, move away from fossil fuels to more benign, inexhaustible
energy sources to cut greenhouse gas emissions and the pollution
of our air and water. Priority must be given to the development
of energy sources matched to third world needs -- small scale
and relatively easy to implement.
We must halt
deforestation, injury to and loss of agricultural land, and the
loss of terrestrial and marine plant and animal species.
2. We must
manage resources crucial to human welfare more effectively. We
must give high priority to efficient use of energy, water, and
other materials, including expansion of conservation and recycling.
3. We must
stabilize population. This will be possible only if all nations
recognize that it requires improved social and economic conditions,
and the adoption of effective, voluntary family planning.
4. We must
reduce and eventually eliminate poverty.
5. We must
ensure sexual equality, and guarantee women control over their
own reproductive decisions.
The developed
nations are the largest polluters in the world today. They must
greatly reduce their overconsumption, if we are to reduce pressures
on resources and the global environment. The developed nations
have the obligation to provide aid and support to developing
nations, because only the developed nations have the financial
resources and the technical skills for these tasks.
Acting on this
recognition is not altruism, but enlightened self-interest: whether
industrialized or not, we all have but one lifeboat. No nation
can escape from injury when global biological systems are damaged.
No nation can escape from conflicts over increasingly scarce
resources. In addition, environmental and economic instabilities
will cause mass migrations with incalculable consequences for
developed and undeveloped nations alike.
Developing
nations must realize that environmental damage is one of the
gravest threats they face, and that attempts to blunt it will
be overwhelmed if their populations go unchecked. The greatest
peril is to become trapped in spirals of environmental decline,
poverty, and unrest, leading to social, economic and environmental
collapse.
Success in
this global endeavor will require a great reduction in violence
and war. Resources now devoted to the preparation and conduct
of war -- amounting to over $1 trillion annually -- will be badly
needed in the new tasks and should be diverted to the new challenges.
A new ethic
is required -- a new attitude towards discharging our responsibility
for caring for ourselves and for the earth. We must recognize
the earth's limited capacity to provide for us. We must recognizeits
fragility. We must no longer allow it to be ravaged. This ethic
must motivate a great movement, convince reluctant leaders and
reluctant governments and reluctant peoples themselves to effect
the needed changes.
The scientists
issuing this warning hope that our message will reach and affect
people everywhere. We need the help of many.
We require
the help of the world community of scientists -- natural, social,
economic, political;
We require
the help of the world's business and industrial leaders;
We require
the help of the worlds religious leaders; and
We require
the help of the world's peoples.
We call on
all to join us in this task.
Select here to learn how to think in balance with Earth.
Continued
.